Tuesday, January 31, 2006

Moneyliners' Super Bowl pick

The theme of this blog has been to find the way to maximize the return for an investment. Risk less, win more, blah blah blah.

The recommendation has been in the NFL playoffs if you are betting the underdog, bet the moneyline, if betting the favorite lay the points. Since post season NFL games almost never end with the land of critical indifference, these are the value plays.

So, here it is:
  • Steelers -4
  • Under 47
I think everything the Seahawks do well (and they do alot well), the Steelers do as well or better. Shaun Alexander is a great runner, but the Steelers' tandem of ball carriers is more versatile. 'Hawks defense is tough. Steelers' D is tougher. Hasselbeck is a good decision-maker that doesn't make mistakes. Roethlisberger has used great game management and good field judgement to lead Pittsburgh to three road playoff wins. And the Steelers' receivers are not a year removed from treatment as drop-aholics.

These defenses seem far too good to surrender enough points to get to the over. I also think the books have been shading the over, making the under all the more likely to pay off.

Monday, January 30, 2006

Folly or misfortune?

Saturday's Bruins' loss to the hapless Islanders is a perfect example of the danger of parlays.

By adding additional games to a card, you multiply the risk of losing due to flukey play. Hockey seems to be a very haphazard proposition in forecasting, by adding in the "win-'em-all" dimension that parlay plays bring with them, it's a wonder anybody ever cashes in one of those tickets.

For Monday, take the Utah Jazz and the 5 1/2.

Saturday, January 28, 2006

Moneyliners' first parlay recommendation

Normally I think parlay's are a bad proposition. Sucker bets.

But in betting hockey, if a player has an aversion to laying heavy odds and thinks a team will almost certainly win, a parlay can be a decent, though not ideal, option.

Here's the 2-gamer for Saturday NHL:
  • N.Y. Rangers over Pittsburgh
  • Boston over N.Y. Islanders
Remember, you gotta win both, but by parlaying you can turn what would be two bets at big odds into one bet returning slightly better than even money.

Rock with the Jazz

Utah is getting 10 points at Dallas Saturday night.

The Jazz look like easy money to me on this one. So easy, it's bordering free.

Take the points, the Jazz should battle. Even if they lose, the land of critical indifference is 10 points wide, a large expanse.

Monday, January 23, 2006

Make that 10-0

If, in the course of handicapping a game, you came across a stat that said, "Sniffers ATS in road games where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points: 10-0," you would be inclined to scratch your head, think for a moment, and contemplate conditions that led to the Sniffers' amazing success in games where the total is in the low 180s.

You might think it has something to do with the style of play the Sniffers employ when facing a certain kind of opponant. Maybe it's the atmospheric pressure that dominates the arena for these games. Maybe it's the Sniffers' propensity to have fajitas at the team meeting the night before. The stat is obscure, but absolute. Something must be causing it. And whatever it is, it does it EVERY time. IT'S 10-0!!!!!!!

You'd probably then turn around and plunk some cash on the Sniffers. I mean, Hell!!! They're 10-0!!! THEY CAN'T LOSE!!!!

Well, the actual stat is this: Straight up winners in the NFL Playoffs this season are 10-0 ATS. And ATS winners in the NFL Playoffs are 10-0 SU. Perfect validation of the old saw:
Pick the winner and let them cover.
The books know this. They did everything they could last week to draw action away from the Steelers on the moneyline in Denver. They bumped the odds on the Steelers up to +115 from the usual starting point of -110. Think about that. An odds jump from -110 to +115!! That means a bet that normally takes $110 to win $100 became a bet that required $100 to win $115. Less risk, better pay off.

And the wager paid off! The Steelers never trailed and their backers all cashed in.

But most of them could have cashed in for more. Much more.

Since In the NFL Playoffs the winners almost always cover, the covers almost always win. And the Steeler-backers that knew this threw their cash on the moneyline. Instead of cashing in on the very favorable +115, they cashed in on the even better +140 to +155 that came with the moneyline during the week. Doing Lines cashed in on this one.

The week before the Steeler backers that thought their team would cover the spot but knew about this rule did even better. The +9' that Pittsburgh got in Indianapolis was accompanied by a +400 on the moneyline. On a $100 wager the difference between taking points on the Steelers and betting them to win was the difference between winning $400 when they won and $100 when they covered.

I think the reason this works this way is because the playoffs bring ot the killer instinct in the NFL. A team almost never sits on a one score lead, too many things can go wrong. They do what they can to get points just before halftime when in the regular season sometimes they run out the clock before the break. They attack for the extra points in the last five minutes when they might be tempted to run the clock in the regular season. The playoff mentality is different. And that difference makes a difference.

Sunday, January 22, 2006

What more to say?

Gameday. It's here.

Agonizing in these parts over the Steelers' prospects in Denver. I think they're good, but wonder if it's my heart or my head carrting the pre-game.

The NFC game doesn't have the emotional dimension. So, without further delay, here's my pick for the NFC title game:
  • Carolina on the moneyline (+155)

Thursday, January 19, 2006

Bait

BetTrojan.com seems to have the best odds I've seen for the Steelers, +3 +110. This means that a player wanting the Steelers gets three points and risks $100 to win $110. Sounds extraordinary. And according to SportsInsights.com, the majority of bets are taking the points and the Steelers.

Before you click to your favorite online sandbox, consider the following:
In this season's NFL PLayoffs SU winners are 8-0 ATS.
What this means is that if you are considering betting the Steelers, consider the moneyline, becasue if they come within three, they'll probably win the game outright.

And on the moneyline the Steelers are +155.

Here are your choices: Risk $100 to win $110 (and get three points you probably won't need), or risk $100 to win $155. It's stark when you look at it this way.

Of course, the possibility exists that Denver will win the game 21-20, or 23-21, or something like that. But history says it's unlikely. Most likely is that the winner will cover. If it's Pittsburgh, the moneyline is the way to go. If it's Denver, laying the points is the value play.

The value of reduced odds

Yesterday my life-long friend (okay, we've been exchanging emails since Christmas), JT Sneaks, went 5-2 on pro hoops. A fine day by any measure.

Let's make a couple assumptions:
  • Each wager was made to win $100
  • He got -105 odds on each

Given these conditions, his profit for the day would have been $290.

If he made these investments on -110 odds, his profits for the day would have been $280.

A sawbuck might not sound like much, but these things add up. $10 a day for a year is $3,650. And that's money that goes into the player's pocket instead of the book's.

A Bull Durham moment

My eyelids are kind of jammed right now, thus the best advise I would give myself would be to back off and regain my breath, like the Lava Lizards of the Galapagos Islands.

As a caveat to my sandbox recommendation, I want to make it known I neither solicited nor received consideration for my opinion. It seems alot of times these things are nothing more than shills for the sponsoring book.

This was "no quarter asked, no quarter received."

Monday, January 16, 2006

Recommended sandbox

I've been asked what online sportsbook I use.

I've used several, and there have been things I liked and disliked about each. A complicating factor is that I like to play hockey games, and not every book seems to understand pucks.

The books' ignorance of hockey translates into perceived risk. Even my new favorite, BetTrojan doesn't offer reduced juice on hockey. It's odds are pretty much 20 cent spreads on pucks, which are standard.

There are five reasons why I like BetTrojan for football and basketball.

  • They offer 10 cent spreads on all football and basketball games. This is a huge break for players.
  • The lines are competitive.
  • The website is easy to navigate.
  • The history pages are informative.
  • Deposits and withdrawls through NeTeller are fast and easy. Members get one free NeTeller withdrawl every month, regardless of amount.

If you want to play hockey games, the two books I recommend are Bowmans and SportsInteraction. Both put up reasonable lines in time for a working stiff to click thier picks, SportsInteraction often offers a slightly better price on favorites, Bowman's usually offers a bigger payback on dogs.

What nobody saw coming

Maybe we're all full of crap.

So many things happened on the gridiron that nobody foresaw in their pregame forecasts.
  • New England turnovers. Five to be exact. The fumbles were total killers. And this from a team known for it's precise execution and ability to not fall victim to the mistakes that bring down other teams.
  • Shawn Alexander getting knocked out with a shot to the melon and watching the game be decided.
  • The random nature of big plays involving Santana Moss. His catch of a deflected pass for a TD was superb, and the defense that denied him a game-tightening TD in the last minute was equally outstanding.
  • The Steeler pressure on Payton Manning. All season the story of the Colts' offense was that blitzing Manning was futile because he would read it, throw out of it and burn the defense for big yards and easy scores. Pittsburgh had Manning under seige much of the game, causing sacks and throwaways. Manning was effective when the Steelers dropped off him into coverage. Dan Dierdorf managed to say one enlightening thing Sunday (and I promise, it was only one), that Manning is reduced to average when under heavy pressure.
  • Gaps in Indy's pass coverage. Pittsburgh sent receivers into the middle beyond the linebackers and found wide open spaces in front of the safeties. Had the Steelers had to continuously score to win this game they would have continued to exploit this.
  • Referee Pete Morelli's brain cramp in overturning Troy Polamalu's interception with 5:26 to go in the game. Instant replay is supposed to be available to correct blown calls, not reverse the correct ones. This one was a travi-sham-ockery.
  • Jerome Bettis' fumble and Ben Roethlisberger's game-saving tackle.
  • Mike Vander Jagt's wide right. Morelli should be thanking the higher powers for this play that saved the Steeler win. He would have been pilloried otherwise.
  • Steve Smith's shredding of the Chicago defense. Smith against man-to-man was a mismatch all game. The Bears had only given up double-digit points at home once all season, and Smith made it look easy.

As a result:

NFL Playoff SU winners ATS: 8-0

Sunday, January 15, 2006

Seahawks prove history right

My head said the Redskins would win the game outright. My mathematical model said the Seahawks would win by 4. My rule of thumb said if the Seahawks win the game they would cover.

Once again, the adage was right.
In NFL post-season, pick the winner and let them cover for you.
Even a cover by one half point is still a cover, and the follwing fact is now true:

2006 NFL Playoff winners ATS: 6-0.

Being that I really want Pittsburgh to win the game, and I tend to not bet games that I have an emotional interest in, I'm laying off. But I saw something that gave me second thought. Somebody thinks the Steelers can run on the Colts. If they can, this game is theirs to win. "Carpe Diem," Big Ben. I could be worth a minimum amount wager to take the Steelers on the moneyline. They're +375. That's a decent return if the Steelers get it done.

My value pick for Sunday, however, is Carolina on the moneyline at +125. Remember, risking less cash for a higher potential return than I would be if I were taking the 3 at -110. Smart players never lose sight of the fact that the betting line price has two componants. The points and the odds.

Saturday, January 14, 2006

Saturday NFL Value

Washington had been a pretty impressive offense over the final few weeks of the regular season, so it was a real head-scratcher when the Redskins set an all-time NFL record for fewest total yards of offense for a winning team in a playoff game last week at Tampa.

For sure, 130 yards will not keep the 'Skins in the game at Seattle.

So the question is: which Redskins offense will show up?

My analysis leans towards the potent one. I model this game as a 4-point Seattle win, almost a full touchdown closer than the linemakers.

Redskins +9'.

Last week I pontificated at length about how the team that covers also ususally wins in the NFL playoffs. So my advice here should be to take the Skins on the moneyline and get the +345 odds. That's a risky play because Seattle is rested and Washington has basically been playing playoff games for the last six weeks. I think this will be a tight game all the way, and wouldn't be surprised to see Seattle win 24-20. So I'm comfortable with this game being the exception to my rule.

New England is playing it's best football of the season, especaily on the defensive side. Jake Plummer is not a QB known for big-time post season performance. But the Pats are dinged up a little bit and may have a tough time against a Denver defense which is very good.

NE/Den Under 44

Thursday, January 12, 2006

Friday money

Bouncing back from a shootout loss that kept me from going 3-0 in Thursday pucks, here are may picks, which are a good deal up to -300:
  • Atlanta over St. Louis
  • Anaheim over Washington
NHL Last night: 2-1
So far: 5-4

If you prefer baskets take the Pacers -7'.

NBA last night: 1-1
So far: 4-4

Wednesday, January 11, 2006

NHL values, Thursday style

The Flyers' 5-2 win over Chicago restored my confidence in NHL hockey. Or maybe it was just that the Caps had the night off.

Either way, on to Thursday's NHL picks. Remember, it's value that matters.
  • Buffalo -198 over Phoenix (Buff rated 85.2 percent likely to win)
  • Florida -201 over St. Louis (Pans rated 76 percent likely to win)
  • Dallas -380 over Washington (Dal rated 86.2 percent to win)
Likelihood of all three coming in: 55.8 percent

Last night's NHL: 1-0 (attaboy!)
To date NHL: 3-3

NBA: "Fix the damn model!!!"

Quantification has to be a critical part of value determination. So I should have wondered "what the hell?" when I got so many indications that NBA totals would stay under.

Upon further review, I would have been right. The mathematical model was flawed, and needed repair. If it hade been working I would have laid off a couple of my picks. I would have gone 1-1 instead of 2-2. Well, shit.

That said, I have two NBA picks for Thursday:
  • Det/SA Over 178'
  • Phx -7
Last night NBA: 2-2
To date NBA: 3-3

Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Wednesday NBA forecast - a land down UNDER

The present day NBA is a more interesting place than a couple seasons ago, when the Clippers were doing well to score into the 70s, let alone in to triple digits.

But it's not the good old days of yore, when you could plunk your sawbucks on "Over 215" and feel good about being able to cash out your ticket.

The best four values on the board for Wednesday look like they could be unders. Thus, without further explanation and in no significant order, here you are:
  • Char/Tor under 206'
  • Dal/NY under 207'
  • Orl/Sea under 209
  • Mia/GS under 209
To date NBA: 1-1

Wednesday NHL

The Flyers are among the three best teams on the ice right now, rested and waiting for the Blackhawks to fly in after an OT game at Washington. I rate Philly as 89 pecent likely to win the game, and the odds on the Flyers are about -230. Take Philly. And remember, in hockey it's value that wins.

Last night's NHL: 1-2 (Stinkin' Caps shit the bed, and McCabe didn't play for the Leafs)
To date NHL: 2-3.

Monday, January 09, 2006

Tuesday Puck Values

This one is hard to say with a straight face, because I've spent most of the season snickering at the pathetic nature of the on-ice comedy show that is the Washington Capitals. So here goes (hehehe):
  • Washington -150 over Chicago
This price infers that the Caps are 60 percent likely to win this game. The 'Hawks are +130, inferring themto be 43.38 percent likely to win. (That the combined inferred probabilities exceed 100 percent is the result of the juice built into the lines.)

Everything the Caps do poorly, the Blackhawks do worse. Both teams give up plenty of goals, but Chicago refuses to at least stay close.

Who would have thought this would bethe case? Both starting goalies are considered among the best in the business. Olaf Kolzig is trade-rumor fodder as long as the Canucks tote Alex Auld onto the ice. Nicolai Khabibulin has a Stanley Cup on his resume. But with Colzig struggling and Khabibulin still doubtful (groin injury), this game becomes a showcase for the rookie Alex Ovechkin. I'm taking the Caps and hoping the 'Hawks take another opportunity show disinterest and lack of talent can combine for utter futility.

Also:
  • Nashville (when it comes on the board)
  • Toronto +140 (really? Auld a favorite against the red-hot Leafs?)
SCORECARD:
Monday picks: 1-1
To date:
NHL: 1-1
NBA: 1-1
NFL: 1-0

Good luck.

Monday hoop value

The best value on the board for Monday in the NBA looks to me to be Tor/Chi Under 202'.

This game should end up somewhere in the low 190's.

I like Utah +3, but it's speculative, certainly not quite investment grade.

Good luck.

Sunday, January 08, 2006

Sunday winners, sunday loser

Let's hear it for the Carolina Panthers!

By taking the moneyline I collected on the +125 odds, instead of the -110 that taking the points would have gotten me.

And the Nashville Predators took advantage of the lowly-playing Chicago Blackhawks.

But the Detoit Red Wings jackpotted me by blowing a 3-0 lead en route to a 6-3 drubbing.

So there we have it:

  • NFL Playoffs: 1-0
  • NHL Picks: 1-1

Wild Card Sunday

The old saw that I heard a long time ago has been pretty reliable throughout the last few seasons.
"Pick the winners and let them cover for you."
What this means is that if you really wish to maximize returns and minimize risks you need to pick the best of two ways to wager your team.

Take for example today's Carolina/N.Y. Giants match-up. The Giants are a 2' point favorite, and there are two ways to bet them. You can lay the points and pay standard odds (usually -110). Or you can wager the "moneyline." A moneyline wager means that for your bet to win the Giants only need to win the game, not win by three or more. Odds on the moneyline are -145.

What this means is that a player can risk $110 to win $100 by giving the 2 1/2 points or risk $145 to win $100 in the event that the Giants win the game.

A player liking Carolina can take the 2' at -110 ($110 to win $100) or they can take the Panthers on the moneyline at +125 (risk $100 to win $125).

Now, back to the adage of post-season football, that teams that win also cover. If Carolina is going to win, wouldn't a player rather collect $125 than $100 at the pay window? Of course. Conversely, if the Giants are going to win, wouldn't a player rather risk $110 than $145 to collect that c-note? Absolutely.

So here's the practical strategy of postseason football:
  • When betting the favorite, lay the points to risk less.
  • When betting the underdog, bet the moneyline to collect more.
I'll keep a running tab on how this works throughout the playoffs.

Saturday Winners ATS: 2-0

Sunday's choice: Carolina ML +125

Saturday, January 07, 2006

Sunday puck favorites

Playing the NHL can be confusing. It seems so random.

And the odds seem so foreign and confusing. You have pucklines and you can give both goals and odds, and, and, and . . . .

You get the idea.

Heres' what I think a player would need to do to win money on NHL hockey. Find value and put the money there. Establish a firm understanding of the odds and the implied probabilities and required winning percentage. Then follow the first rule of sports gaming:
  • Don't put money on losers.
My value plays for Sunday's NHL:
  • Detroit over Dallas
  • Nashville over Chicago
Good luck.

Opening the window to Moneyliners

Moneyliners, a weblog meant to speak about sports forecasting, game picks, systems and guidelines is now open for posting.

I concentrate on the major pro sports, NFL, NBA, NHL and MLB.

Since most gaming blogs discuss pigskins and hoops, maybe the insights I hope to post here concerning the NHL and MLB will be insightful.

Comments will be welcome.