Moneyliners' Super Bowl pick

The theme of this blog has been to find the way to maximize the return for an investment. Risk less, win more, blah blah blah.

The recommendation has been in the NFL playoffs if you are betting the underdog, bet the moneyline, if betting the favorite lay the points. Since post season NFL games almost never end with the land of critical indifference, these are the value plays.

So, here it is:

• Steelers -4
• Under 47

I think everything the Seahawks do well (and they do alot well), the Steelers do as well or better. Shaun Alexander is a great runner, but the Steelers' tandem of ball carriers is more versatile. 'Hawks defense is tough. Steelers' D is tougher. Hasselbeck is a good decision-maker that doesn't make mistakes. Roethlisberger has used great game management and good field judgement to lead Pittsburgh to three road playoff wins. And the Steelers' receivers are not a year removed from treatment as drop-aholics.

These defenses seem far too good to surrender enough points to get to the over. I also think the books have been shading the over, making the under all the more likely to pay off.