Make that 10-0

If, in the course of handicapping a game, you came across a stat that said, "Sniffers ATS in road games where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points: 10-0," you would be inclined to scratch your head, think for a moment, and contemplate conditions that led to the Sniffers' amazing success in games where the total is in the low 180s.

You might think it has something to do with the style of play the Sniffers employ when facing a certain kind of opponant. Maybe it's the atmospheric pressure that dominates the arena for these games. Maybe it's the Sniffers' propensity to have fajitas at the team meeting the night before. The stat is obscure, but absolute. Something must be causing it. And whatever it is, it does it EVERY time. IT'S 10-0!!!!!!!

You'd probably then turn around and plunk some cash on the Sniffers. I mean, Hell!!! They're 10-0!!! THEY CAN'T LOSE!!!!

Well, the actual stat is this: Straight up winners in the NFL Playoffs this season are 10-0 ATS. And ATS winners in the NFL Playoffs are 10-0 SU. Perfect validation of the old saw:

Pick the winner and let them cover.

The books know this. They did everything they could last week to draw action away from the Steelers on the moneyline in Denver. They bumped the odds on the Steelers up to +115 from the usual starting point of -110. Think about that. An odds jump from -110 to +115!! That means a bet that normally takes $110 to win $100 became a bet that required $100 to win $115. Less risk, better pay off.

And the wager paid off! The Steelers never trailed and their backers all cashed in.

But most of them could have cashed in for more. Much more.

Since In the NFL Playoffs the winners almost always cover, the covers almost always win. And the Steeler-backers that knew this threw their cash on the moneyline. Instead of cashing in on the very favorable +115, they cashed in on the even better +140 to +155 that came with the moneyline during the week. Doing Lines cashed in on this one.

The week before the Steeler backers that thought their team would cover the spot but knew about this rule did even better. The +9' that Pittsburgh got in Indianapolis was accompanied by a +400 on the moneyline. On a $100 wager the difference between taking points on the Steelers and betting them to win was the difference between winning $400 when they won and $100 when they covered.

I think the reason this works this way is because the playoffs bring ot the killer instinct in the NFL. A team almost never sits on a one score lead, too many things can go wrong. They do what they can to get points just before halftime when in the regular season sometimes they run out the clock before the break. They attack for the extra points in the last five minutes when they might be tempted to run the clock in the regular season. The playoff mentality is different. And that difference makes a difference.