NHL values, Thursday style

The Flyers' 5-2 win over Chicago restored my confidence in NHL hockey. Or maybe it was just that the Caps had the night off.

Either way, on to Thursday's NHL picks. Remember, it's value that matters.

• Buffalo -198 over Phoenix (Buff rated 85.2 percent likely to win)
• Florida -201 over St. Louis (Pans rated 76 percent likely to win)
• Dallas -380 over Washington (Dal rated 86.2 percent to win)

Likelihood of all three coming in: 55.8 percent

Last night's NHL: 1-0 (attaboy!)
To date NHL: 3-3

NBA: "Fix the damn model!!!"

Quantification has to be a critical part of value determination. So I should have wondered "what the hell?" when I got so many indications that NBA totals would stay under.

Upon further review, I would have been right. The mathematical model was flawed, and needed repair. If it hade been working I would have laid off a couple of my picks. I would have gone 1-1 instead of 2-2. Well, shit.

That said, I have two NBA picks for Thursday:

• Det/SA Over 178'
• Phx -7
  

Last night NBA: 2-2
To date NBA: 3-3