The line can only move one way

Game 5 of the NBA West Finals is a classic optimization opportunity.

The Spurs are 7 1/2 point favorites at most books, 7 at some others. And a check of the betting trends are pretty heavily tilted towards the Spurs, approximately 65 percent of the wagers are coming in on the home team.

The play here is this: Wait until the last 30 minutes before game time, giving the books every chance possible to attract money on Utah by moving the line up, then take Utah and the points. It seems reasonable that the line will get to 8 1/2, 9 seems like a lot. But in any case, the line can only go one way, and that's up for the dog.

To show the power of the trend, think about this: I got an email from the marketing dude at oddsmaker.com informing me that the wagering was heavy on the Pistons for Eastern Game 4, and the Pistons have a solid history in this situation, so I should jump on the Piston bandwagon and get some while the getting is good. (As a matter of fact the line on the game moved from Cleveland -1 to Detroit -1.)

And how did it come out? Cleveland won and covered. Trust me, betting against the trend pays off a lot more than you might think.