Saturday, February 03, 2007

We're number 40!!!!

Normally being in 40th isn't that big of a deal.

But yours truly, a.k.a. rhino95, is 40th of more than 7700 in the Wagerline NHL contest, with a 17,290 unit gain on the season as of Saturday morning.

But the real reason for the braggadocio is the winning percentage: 80.32. At 57-14 for the season, rhino95 is at least 12 percentage points better than anybody else in the Top 50.

What I really want to do is crack the Top 5, that would put me in line to win some cash, anywhere from $300 to $600, or a big screen TV if I manage to finish on the very top of the pile.

I've never had success like this before, so it could take some getting used to.

My picks for Saturday:
  • Buf +106
  • Tor/Ott under 6'
Wish me luck.

Friday, February 02, 2007

Value

I listen to "The Rage" on Sirius 186 most afternoons. While the banter is fun to listen to, I'm disappointed the guys on the show have bought into the idea that there is "value" in a selection.

Stick to the rules. The first rule of wagering is:
"Only bet on winners."
All else is rationalization for making bad picks.

The guys also yammer incessantly about prices being too high on hockey when the odds are worst than -200. In hockey the key to winning is all about finding disconnection between the odds and the likelihood of your team winning the game. Laying -250 is a solid investment if your team is 80 percent likely to win the game.

Super Bowl XLI

I think there are three acceptable investing strategies for XLI:
  • Take the Bears on the moneyline. You get +200.
  • Take the Colts and lay the points. All the better if you can de-juice at -105.
  • Middle by taking the Bears and the points on one ticket and the Colts on the moneyline on another ticket. At least one ticket has to cash in, and with a little luck both could win.
If you want to tease the game, I suggest you tease the Bears to 13 and the Under to 54.

Good luck.