Giddy up!

The Colts opened as a 9' point favorite and are down to 7 at home against the Jags this Sunday.

The 9' might seem like alot, but the Colts are explosive and have scored easily against the Jags before. They built a big lead on the Jags last December in Jacksonville, and held on to win after an extended span of garbage time that saw the Jags come back enough to push an 8-point spot.

The Jags are the current darlings of John Q. Public, they are a road dog that, at this writing, are getting the majority of wagers for the game, according to SportsInsights.com (I highly recommend the FREE membership). It's only 54 percent, but still, a road dog getting most of the action is an anomaly, bordering on a rarity. (The Bengals are drawing 73 percent of the wagers getting 2 at Pittsburgh, make that two anomalies on the same weekend. I've said this seems to be a wierd season, and I'll have to stick by that comment.) That's what pitching a shutout at the defending champions on MNF will do for a team. Well, that and being discovered by the bald, orange stooge in the booth.

Okay, enough digression. I think the Colts will rout the Jags. No disrespect, the Jags are a solid team. But this is exactly what the Colts have been waiting for: a tough opponent they've had success against on it's own field in an early season game. The Colts will be motivated, the Jags might be a little hung over from the MNF party. And the line is down to one score. I'll take Indy and lay the 7.

See ya at the bank.

Too many points by the beach

I'm a Utah grad and die-hard booster, but I have to say that 9 1/2 points is too many for me to feel good about giving at San Diego State.

I think the Utes will win. They have a score to settle from last season's embarrassing loss to the Aztecs. But 9 1/2? Up from 6 1/2? Whoa.

As an aside, take a look at the huge line moves this week in the NFL. There's gotta be some value in those nuggets, and I'll discuss 'em tomorrow night.

Teasing the NFL

My teaser came through, placed at www.nine.com, paid +300 for the 4-game play.

It looked bad for a few minutes in the fourth quarter of the Packers' game, but then the Pack scored against a Saints defense that was playing soft beause it had a 14-point lead. The 7-point final margin was within the 8' I got when I teased the Pack.

No clue for tonight's Pittsburgh/Jacksonville game. Both teams are stout. I'll sit back nad watch.

NFL Week 1

My statistical calculations are in for last week (hey, it's been a hectic week!).

Here are the observations:

• There was almost no home field advantage. In fact, the home teams actually underproduced, based on performance.
• A team could expect a net point on the scoreboard for every 12.94 net rushing yards and 15.27 net passing yards. This is in line with expecation that rushing is more conducive to winning than passing. Both these numbers seem too high, but scoring was below expected (the "under" was 11-5 in Vegas). Look for these numbers to drop as scoring increases.
• A turnover was worth 3.21 points. This is almost exactly as expected.

Remember, this regression only included 16 games, not a statistically significant number. This week's results will be anxiously awaited.

Upon further review . . .

The observation has been made that last week's NFL results were an outlier in almost every way.

Ah, the rash musings of those wandering "the internets."

It has long been one of my main articles of belief that the team that runs the ball more wins most of the time. It seems to hold up at a 75 percent rate in College games, and a slightly lower rate in the NFL.

Last week teams that ran the ball for more yards went 11-5. That's roughly 69 percent. Exacty in line with my expectation.

However, I did find a very interesting tidbit. The New York Giants outrushed Indianapolis by 131 yards. I anybody wants to slog through NFL box scores to find the last time a team out-rushed it's opponent by 100 yards or more and LOST, be my guest. I suspect it has been a while.

I'll have more on this later, but right now suffice it to say I think it would take 3-4 turnovers to of set a rushing differential like the one the Giants had, and they were only -1 on the turnover column.

Ok, go watch the games. Good luck in your office pools.

Wow! Long lost moneyliner comes back to life

Finally! It's been a hectic summer, and I admit to having allowed this to slip. But with football now in full swing, the time has come to start feeding the beast.

While I normally don't love teasers any more than praleys (which I despise all the way to the ticket window), here's my Week 2 NFL teaser:

• Packers +8
• Colts -7
• Chargers -6
• Seahawks -1

I may consider teasing the Redskins on SNF as part of this, maybe taking GB off the ticket. That way if the ticket is still alive come Sunday night I can take the Cowboys for a middling play. (More on middling on a later date.)

Good luck!