Seahawks prove history right

My head said the Redskins would win the game outright. My mathematical model said the Seahawks would win by 4. My rule of thumb said if the Seahawks win the game they would cover.

Once again, the adage was right.

In NFL post-season, pick the winner and let them cover for you.

Even a cover by one half point is still a cover, and the follwing fact is now true:

2006 NFL Playoff winners ATS: 6-0.

Being that I really want Pittsburgh to win the game, and I tend to not bet games that I have an emotional interest in, I'm laying off. But I saw something that gave me second thought. Somebody thinks the Steelers can run on the Colts. If they can, this game is theirs to win. "Carpe Diem," Big Ben. I could be worth a minimum amount wager to take the Steelers on the moneyline. They're +375. That's a decent return if the Steelers get it done.

My value pick for Sunday, however, is Carolina on the moneyline at +125. Remember, risking less cash for a higher potential return than I would be if I were taking the 3 at -110. Smart players never lose sight of the fact that the betting line price has two componants. The points and the odds.