Friday, February 02, 2007

Value

I listen to "The Rage" on Sirius 186 most afternoons. While the banter is fun to listen to, I'm disappointed the guys on the show have bought into the idea that there is "value" in a selection.

Stick to the rules. The first rule of wagering is:
"Only bet on winners."
All else is rationalization for making bad picks.

The guys also yammer incessantly about prices being too high on hockey when the odds are worst than -200. In hockey the key to winning is all about finding disconnection between the odds and the likelihood of your team winning the game. Laying -250 is a solid investment if your team is 80 percent likely to win the game.

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