Sunday, September 17, 2006

NFL Week 1

My statistical calculations are in for last week (hey, it's been a hectic week!).

Here are the observations:
  • There was almost no home field advantage. In fact, the home teams actually underproduced, based on performance.
  • A team could expect a net point on the scoreboard for every 12.94 net rushing yards and 15.27 net passing yards. This is in line with expecation that rushing is more conducive to winning than passing. Both these numbers seem too high, but scoring was below expected (the "under" was 11-5 in Vegas). Look for these numbers to drop as scoring increases.
  • A turnover was worth 3.21 points. This is almost exactly as expected.

Remember, this regression only included 16 games, not a statistically significant number. This week's results will be anxiously awaited.

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