Tribal knowledge in hoops betting

The old saw says the home floor advantage is worth about 3 points in the NBA. Here's the question: "Where did that number come from?"

Every regression I've done in the recent months indicates a home advantage of approximately 4 1/2 points.

While you might wonder if this is a big deal, I'd say it is. Taking this larger home court advantage into account means that when you see a road team that's a value, that's a really good value. I feel even better about recommending the Bobcats +11 and the Blazers +10 Tuesday night. Both are roadies.

Is it just a coincidence that the 3-point home court advantage in the NBA is exactly the same number of points as the NFL's perceived 3-point home field advantage? Hmmm.