Sunday, February 26, 2006

Assessing the carnage

0-5-1 for a day of picking NBA games is no easier to do than 5-0-1. Watching the scoreboard Saturday night felt like walking into the wedding carnage scene in "Kill Bill, Vol. 1." There was blood everywhere.

Some of it I deserved. I had a hunch the Jazz would not beat New Orleans twice in their home-and-home. But the extent of the dispair! Charlotte and Phoenix had a 74-point first quarter. The 210 looked generous to the under going in, and it wasn't enough to contain a 3-quarter trend. Ugh.

My system produces a forecast for every NBA game, and it occurs to me I'm listing the picks wrong. Since February 1, the system is producing SU winners 68 percent, with those teams covering about about 53 percent. So that said, here's Monday's forecast:
  • Det 5 over Clev
  • NJ 4 over Atl
  • Mia 5 over Tor
  • Was 2 over Mem
  • Dal 13 over Phil
  • SA 18 over NY
  • Hou 5 over Phx
  • Den 1 over Mil
  • Sac 17 over Port
  • GS 4 over Ut
  • LAC 7 over Char
Good luck.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

No time for chit chat

Yammering is what bloggers seem to do best, but today's not a good day for navel-gazing. So without further delay, here are my Saturday picks:
  • Tor/Dal under 197'
  • NY/Was under 198
  • Sea/Mia under 206'
  • GS/SA over 184
  • Char/Phx under 210
  • Utah -2
Yesterday: 0-1
Since the All-Star game: 4-6

Thursday, February 23, 2006

Ok, I'll bite

Sometimes you see a line and wonder what they were thinking. "How can they post a line that far off base?"

Friday's Spurs at Grizzlies game is such a case. The Spurs are 3-point favorites, and that's well within reason. But the total is 169'. Whoa.

I can't think of a lower total than that all season. I know there have been some in the low 170s, and those have oftentimes failed to go over. But I don't recall any on the 160s.

So I'll take the bait.
  • SA/Mem Over 169'
Last night: 2-0 (Yee Haw!!)
Post All-Star: 4-5.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

Just plain ugly

What can I say?

2-5 since the All-Star break? Just plain ugly.

Thursday night has a small number of games on the hardwoods. With the North American hockey players on the way back from Torino, and the only compelling Olympic competition involving a girl named Sasha, this looks like a good night to settle in for some NBA rivalry hoops.

The Pistons are giving 8' to Indiana, this seems like alot. I have this game rated almost even. Coming off a six-game losing streak, the Pacers have won six of their last seven, the other game being a narrow defeat at San Antonio. Indiana could be playing the best ball in the league right now.

The Lakers have won 6 of 8 at home, with the losses to sub-par Atlanta and surprisingly good Memphis. Sacramento has beaten the Lakers three straight, but the Kings' last visit to Staples to play the Lakers was last April. Hardly fresh in the memory. My system has the Kings winning this game outright, and it shows a strong "Under 200."

That said, and with that 2-5 albatross getting heavier and heavier, here are my Thursday NBA selections:
  • Ind +8' at Det
  • Sac/LAL under 200
Play 'em or fade 'em at your own risk. Hell, I'm 2 of my last 7.

Second half blues

Things were going so well. Then halftime rolled around.

The Utah Jazz lost it's will to defend. The Charlotte Bobcats and Portland Trailblazers lost their legs, and all three went into the minus column for the Brun-ster.

Tonight's picks:
  • Sea/Atl under 213
  • NJ -9 over Orl

Monday, February 20, 2006

Tribal knowledge in hoops betting

The old saw says the home floor advantage is worth about 3 points in the NBA. Here's the question: "Where did that number come from?"

Every regression I've done in the recent months indicates a home advantage of approximately 4 1/2 points.

While you might wonder if this is a big deal, I'd say it is. Taking this larger home court advantage into account means that when you see a road team that's a value, that's a really good value. I feel even better about recommending the Bobcats +11 and the Blazers +10 Tuesday night. Both are roadies.

Is it just a coincidence that the 3-point home court advantage in the NBA is exactly the same number of points as the NFL's perceived 3-point home field advantage? Hmmm.

'Bout damn time

Why is it that a 4-day bender from hoops seems like a month?

Boring Olympic hockey? No NHL games? No really compelling college hoop match-ups? Too much Olympic ice dancing? Not enough screen time for Tanith Belbin?

So many potential rants, so little time.

But I digress. Without further dealy, here are my Tuesday NBA picks:
  • Detroit/Atlanta Under 191. I see Detroit coming in around 100, and the Pistons' defense holding the pathetic (on the road) Hawks to somewhere between 80 and 87.
  • San Antonio -13 over Seattle. My math has the Spurs winning by 19.
  • Utah -5 over Boston. Jazz have been off over a week, Boozer is back and should start getting more playing time. I see the Jazz winning by about 9.
  • Charlotte +11 at Denver. Nuggets have been very spotty for the last month. This game shows up on my board as a near toss-up, I'll take the 5 extra hoops.
  • Portland +10 at LA Lakers. Lakers never seem to run up a big score against a crappy opponent at home.
Back tomorrow with the tally.

Just desserts

Any time you lay a dollar (or any amount of green) on a game in which the players' concern about winning is secondary, you're singling out that money as money you really don't care if you ever see again.

That's why it's not a great idea to bet on all-star games. The West built a huge lead in the second quarter, then put it into cruise when the East stormed back in the third quarter. The final of 122-120 put the West bettors in the loss column.

Ah, well. (Sigh.) I guess we get another day away from the NBA grind before the league begins again in earnest. Enjoy the Olympics.

Sunday, February 19, 2006

Go West, young man

Sometimes the urge hits in wierd circumstances. This time it was during the preparation of dinner, with my arms wrist-deep in meatloaf that the thought came: "Take the West and lay the 4'."

So there you go. Call it the "Meatloaf Factor." See ya at the bank.

Saturday, February 18, 2006

Yo, Canada!

The line on the Canada vs. Switzerland game seems to be uniformacross the internet books, Canada -3'. Sounds like a lot, but these games can get out of hand, and the Canadian men's mentality is closer to that of the Canadian women than the other favored teams.

That mentality is this: "Score as many goals as you can and win by as much as possible."

So, where to wager the game? If you've read Moneyliners much you know I'll say that you need to find the best odds. And that, in my case, was BetTrojan. They offered Canada at -125. Nine.com was decent at -130. Bodog was at -135.

Nine would have been the place to bet the Swiss if you think the game would be close. They were offering the Swiss at +110. BetTrojan and Bodog were at +105.

Overall analysis is that BetTrojan and Nine were competitive, Bodog's lines were slightly more juiced.

That said, "Game on!"

Thursday, February 16, 2006

Slouching towards the All-Star game

Last night's tally: 1-2.

Turns out the Knicks are more in tune with Moneyliners than I thought. Here I go and say they can't beat anybody, anywhere, and they pull off a two-point win over the Raptors. Life is that way sometimes.

Tonight's posted numbers are almost identical to my modeled results, so i see no value in making a forecast. I hope Phoenix wins, but am not willing to throw a portion of my wallet toward the effort.

Wednesday, February 15, 2006

Wednesday NBA picks

Three of 'em that I really like for tonight:
  • San Antonio -6 over Philly.
  • Toronto -3' over the Knicks. (For that matter, anybody over the Knicks.)
  • Phoenix -2' over Denver.

We'll tally tonight and post the results.

Monday, February 06, 2006

Monday in the Association

A fairly long slate of NBA contests for a Monday. But two games really stick out.
  • Cleveland -7' over Milwaukee. The LeBrons have been inconsistant lately, and this is a chance for them to go upside.
  • Utah -3' over Chicago. The Jazz look like they're pulling out of their recent funk. The Bulls are a mediocre Eastern conference team, which makes them ripe to be fodder for a mediocre Western conference team.

Sunday, February 05, 2006

Men of Steel

Congrats to the Pittsburgh Steelers. They won three road playoff games to get to the Super Bowl and beat the best team in the NFC to win the Lombardi Trophy. No getting around it, they deserved the title they won Sunday in Detroit.

Seattle played a valiant game. The Seahawks fought hard, but the Steelers were better at everything both these teams do best. And when there was a big play to be made, it was Pittsburgh making it. The play call for Randle-El to Ward for the final TD was brilliant, the result spectacular.

SU winners in the NFL Post-season ATS: 11-0.

Happy off-season everybody. See you on the hardwood and at the rink.

Lost in the shuffle

Somehow Saturday's entry explaining the results from my NBA forecasting model got deleted.

Damn. It was good. If you read it you've probably been wondering how to nominate it for a pulitzer, or something.

The picks for saturday that it gave us were NJ +3', Det -8, NO -4' and Phx -9. It went 3-1.

I'll expound on the details later. When I get over the sadness of the void created by a missing post.

Super Duperday

The biggest game of the year. Finally.

I've already staked out my position on the football game.
  • Steelers -4
  • Under 47
See ya at the bank.

My NBA picks have been doing nicely lately.

Friday: 1-0
Saturday: 3-1
Moneyliners so far: 8-6 (Not overwhelming, but at least on the plus side).

The system says the Rockets are a play today at NY, but I think I'll lay off that one and concentrate on the seven layer dip I need to have for the football party.

Friday, February 03, 2006

Fade my NBA picks

On Wagerline.com I'm at the 30th percentile for the NBA regular season. That means that 70 percent of the participants in that contest are beating me. Most, probably with gusto.

My win/loss is, however, an excitingly average 28-29. Not terrible, but I'm obviously getting juiced.

The LeBrons should have been a good pick. Books tend to shade the favorties, they were the dog. Books also shade the home team, they were on the road. The general rule says to fade John Q. Public, and he was all over the Heat. The winnings should have been credited to my account upon wager placement, just out of general principal.

Then, of course, they played the game. The LeBrons made a run at the line in the third, but got blown up in the fourth and limped off a 20-something point loser. Ugh.

Okay, all that said, take the Jazz tonight at home, giving what?, four? Give whatever. The Kings are going down.

NBA so far on this site: 4-5.

Thursday, February 02, 2006

Thursday hoopin'

The LeBrons get 7 at Shaq-Daddy on TNT.

My forecasting system has this game as a virtual toss-up, there's no reason to think the LeBrons won't come within 3 1/2 baskets.

Since January 13 teams that rate a "0" (as are the LeBrons) are 4-4 SU! This means that if you can get a decent return on the moneyline, you may consider it.

Personally, I've got the Cavs and the points. This gives me an even money chance on winning outright, and makes me commander of the land of critical indifference, that twilight zone between a Cleveland win and Miami winning by 7.